Predictions that are worth nothing - here's mine.

Every single commentator seems to have a series of predictions for the year ahead (based on a whole lot of ‘Buggered-If-I-Know” scenarios). They are hardly ever right. It's like when the space shuttle goes up, and someone always says it will explode or crash. When it does, media commentators ask them "how did you know????"

But they’re fun, so here goes my lists (in no particular order).

SERIOUS PREDICTIONS

1. One of the big Aussie mining companies will painfully fold.
2. Fonterra (NZ) dairy payout will drop to around $4.40.
3. There will be a surprise, proportionately massive fraud exposed that will centre on Australia (and in my humble opinion………Perth).
4. “Generation Y” employees will discover what it is to work in tough times. See “Gen Y Employment in 2009”
5. There will be large redundancies in both Australia and New Zealand (well, d’uh).
6. ‘High Street’ retailers will fold in unprecedented numbers. Many will be acquired in takeovers at ridiculously low prices (remember Barings Bank for 1 Euro?)
7. One major pacific airline will collapse. Government will be forced to avoid a bailout to keep voters happy.
8. A major non core Aussie bank will be in serious trouble (if not fold).
9. Food riots in the US. Not really a difficult prediction.
10. There will be a net outflow of illegal immigrants from the US.
11. The Euro zone will lose members. For example, why would the German people care about Italian debt, or Spanish house prices?


NOT SO SERIOUS PREDICTIONS

1. The All Blacks, in an attempt to garner more funding, will play test matches against South Africa in France.
2. Sydney will realise that despite what it thinks, it is as relevant to the world of high finance as a catflap in an elephant house (apologies to Ben Elton).
3. Formula 1 to lose half the teams.
4. With the demise of the Australian cricket team, test cricket will become far less relevant.
5. This blog won’t last three months.